Mountain hazards: understanding key risk drivers beyond climate change Navigating Land Use Competition and Systemic Risks in Mountain Regions From Triggers to Impacts: Interpretable Impact-Based Hazard Modelling and Risk Dynamics in Mountain Regions
Session status: Accepted
Content last updated: 2026-06-21 19:22:46
Online available since: 2026-02-23 12:17:13
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Full Title
Mountain hazard risk dynamics: Land use, systemic interactions and impact-based approaches beyond climate change
Mountain regions worldwide are experiencing rising losses from natural hazards. While climate change intensifies many hazard processes, shifting exposure, evolving land use, and changing vulnerability patterns are equally powerful – and often underexamined – drivers of risk. At the same time, competing land uses and socio-economic transformations are reshaping mountain socio-ecological systems, creating new constellations of systemic and cascading risks. This session brings together research that advances a comprehensive understanding of mountain risk dynamics by linking hazard processes, land use change, exposure and vulnerability evolution, and impact-based modelling approaches.
We invite interdisciplinary contributions that address one or more of the following themes:
Evolving exposure and vulnerability across spatial and temporal scales, including improved datasets, empirical validation, and integration of institutional and socio-economic dimensions.
Land use competition, trade-offs and conflicts (e.g., tourism, hydropower, agriculture, forestry, settlement expansion) and their role in generating, redistributing, or transforming natural hazard risk.
Systemic and cascading risks in mountain socio-ecological systems, including cross-sectoral and cross-scale interactions.
Impact-based and integrative modelling approaches, linking hydro-meteorological drivers, terrain and land cover, exposure, vulnerability, and runout dynamics to deliver spatially explicit risk assessments and scenario-based analyses.
Warning value chains and decision support, including threshold evaluation, uncertainty communication, true/false alarm trade-offs, and risk-oriented early warning.
Scenario tools and forward-looking approaches, such as SSP-aligned assessments, agent-based models, participatory methods, and nature-based solutions to support adaptive governance.
Empirical analyses of loss trends, disentangling the roles of climate change, exposure dynamics, land use decisions, and mitigation measures.
We particularly encourage contributions that bridge natural and social sciences, and that connect process understanding with decision-making and policy relevance. Comparative case studies from Alpine and other mountain regions are welcome. The session aims to foster dialogue between scientists, practitioners, and policymakers to support adaptive, impact-oriented risk management.
Registered Abstracts
ID: 3.33
Cultural heritage and community practices in Val Resia: Knowledge co-production for resilience to systemic risks systemic risk
This study investigates the role played by local knowledge and cultural heritage in fostering community resilience to natural hazards in Val Resia, a mountain valley recognized within the Julian Alps Biosphere Reserve. Conducted as part of the RETURN project funded by the PNRR, the research aimed at co-developing an understanding of how intangible values – such as cultural identity, collective experiences, and local practices – are key factors in strengthening resilience to natural hazard risks within complex mountain socio‑ecological systems, and how these values can be linked to different phases of disaster risk management in the valley.
The project used transdisciplinary participatory methods, engaging with community members, local associations, and stakeholders affiliated with the Biosphere Reserve to reflect on the unique cultural identity of Val Resia and its role in the community’s historical resilience to natural hazards. Empirical data collection was conducted with the support of local actors, co-defining workshop modalities through the identification of core topics of interest for the community, stakeholder inclusion, and participatory methods. Data was coded, analysed, and tested against a conceptual framework.
Key findings highlight the community’s attachment to the territory, expressed through local cultural practices and rich local knowledge, which contribute to coping capacities and adaptive strategies in contexts marked by systemic risks and the growing pressures of environmental change and land‑use competition in mountain areas. Deeper insights into the results present possible contributions of the identified elements and expressions of cultural heritage and local knowledge to different phases of community-based disaster risk management. The study also revealed the challenges of investigating the connection between cultural heritage and resilience through participatory processes, with insights on the adopted methods and practical recommendations.
Aligned with the Biosphere Reserve governance principle, our research underscores the importance of community involvement in co-producing knowledge to develop risk management strategies rooted in the fundamental relationships between communities, cultural heritage, and the environment. The main intended output of this study is to contribute to the development of a replicable model for communities facing similar hazards and systemic pressures, emphasizing the role of cultural heritage in fostering resilient mountain societies and guiding adaptation processes.
ID: 3.93
Observational data supporting basin -scale modelling: experiences from the Gadria catchment.
Laura Bozzoli Zugliani, Daniel; Rosatti, Giorgio
Abstract/Description
Modelling debris flows at the basin scale is a formidable challenge that has recently been addressed by an increasing number of studies and tools, such as the TRENT2D–MBRR model, capable of simulating mobile-bed debris-flow dynamics starting from precipitation inputs. Nevertheless, simulating the fundamental physical processes is not only a mathematical and numerical issue, but also requires extensive field data for model calibration and validation. Consequently, the reliability of basin-scale debris-flow models strongly depends on the availability and quality of observational data. This study focuses on analysing available data from the Gadria catchment in South Tyrol (northern Italy) to assess their suitability for the calibration and validation of basin-scale debris-flow models. The Gadria catchment has been monitored for several years. In this area, the Civil Protection Agency of Bolzano, in collaboration with the Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, faced challenges posed by the mountainous environment, including ensuring a reliable power supply and internet connectivity for real-time data transmission. Since 2011, the catchment has been equipped with three rain gauge stations, three hydrometers, four geophone plates, and three webcams, mainly located in the lower part of the basin. This monitoring network has produced long time series of observations, which are potentially valuable for the calibration and validation of catchment-scale hydrological and debris-flow models, such as TRENT2D–MBRR. Unfortunately, as one might expect, the collected data are affected by several sources of uncertainty and inconsistency, as is commonly observed in remote mountain environments. These include measurement errors due to local conditions (e.g., wind effects on rain gauges), data gaps, time shifts among datasets, in the baseline uncertainties, and noise in hydrometer signals. Furthermore, overall data coherence is seldom achieved, and therefore, only a few events are reasonably usable. Finally, additional limitations arise from the lack of monitoring stations across the different initiation areas, preventing the identification of the specific tributaries activated during events and recorded in the main channel. In conclusion, despite the Gadria basin being a well-monitored catchment, the effective use of available data in advanced basin-scale debris-flow modelling remains challenging, and it requires accurate data assessment and consistency analyses before use.
ID: 3.108
Warning and Alarming System for Natural Hazards at the Simplon Pass
Janine Wetter Carrel, Maxence; Stitelmann, Olafur; St. Pierre, Thèo; Von Wartburg, Jonas
Abstract/Description
The Simplon pass culminates at 2006 m over sea and is one of the principal alpine roads crossing the Alps in the North-South direction. It is extremely important for intra-European goods transportation, because it is open all year round. As it is only protected by avalanche galleries and does not cross a tunnel, dangerous goods like chemicals can be transported safely on this road, making this road even more important.
On the 29th of June 2025 at about 4.30 PM, following a few days of high intensity precipitation, several massive debris flows originating from the region of the Hübschhorn rock glacier entered the Engi gallery that is normally protecting the road from avalanches in winter. More than one meter of debris was deposited inside the gallery, causing the closure of the road. The Hübschhorn rock glacier had been melting substantially over the last decade so that a combination of high temperature and important cumulative precipitation could mobilize the debris. The road had to be reopened as rapidly as possible. To do so, the debris flow channel had to be raised to avoid new damage to the road in case of new events, but this meant performing construction works in a region with frequent rockfall and high debris flow risk. Therefore, the Federal Roads Office mandated Geoprevent to rapidly install both a monitoring system, to provide information about the state of the rock glacier, as well as a multi-component alarming system to detect debris flows and rockfall. The alarming system could close the road and trigger a local alarm on the construction site in case of detections.
This work introduces the different components of these complex monitoring and alarming systems and presents some insights into the challenges faced during their installation and operation.
ID: 3.129
Beyond surface displacement: Monitoring rotational surface deformation in mountain permafrost
Observing the surface deformation in ice-rich mountain permafrost, particularly of rock glaciers as climate-sensitive landforms, opens a window to the subsurface thermal and mechanical processes. As climate warming accelerates permafrost degradation, research increasingly focuses not only on deformation rates but also on deformation modes, in order to improve process-based understanding of the kinematic response of rock glaciers to climate change. In this context, Rock Glacier Velocity (RGV) has recently been designated an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) parameter by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). However, existing approaches to measure RGV either rely on spatially extensive remote sensing, which captures translational motion and is ineffective during snow-covered periods, or on localised in-situ measurements that may lack spatial representativeness.
The InclinoNet project addresses this gap by building and deploying a distributed network of autonomous, wireless in-situ inclinometers to continuously monitor the rotational motion of surface blocks on the Äußeres Hochebenkar rock glacier (Ötztal Alps). Funded through an Early Stage Funding grant from the University of Innsbruck Vice-Rectorate for Research, the project captures rotational deformation of multiple blocks simultaneously, providing a novel observational perspective that complements established displacement-based measurements. The inclinometer data are validated using independent surface-displacement observations derived from terrestrial laser scanning and GNSS. Overall, InclinoNet will show how dense, ground-based sensing can enhance the detection and interpretation of deformation patterns associated with permafrost degradation, thereby strengthening the observational basis for RGV assessment, process understanding, and hazard evaluation. The technological insights gained may also support the development of future hazard monitoring and early-warning systems in high-mountain environments.
ID: 3.130
A Scenario-Based Framework for Multi-Hazard assessment in Valle d’Aosta Region (Northwestern Italy)
Davide Cardone van den Bout, Bastian; Godone, Danilo; Giordan, Daniele; Nex, Franesco; van Westen, Cees
Abstract/Description
Natural hazards rarely occur independently. They are highly likely to interact with each other across space and time. This dynamic is particularly pronounced in mountain regions. High-mountain environments are characterised by high gravitational potential energy, the presence of glaciers, dense hydrological networks, and varied weather patterns. This setting is prone to a wide range of natural hazards, including landslides, floods, avalanches, forest fires, glacial lake outburst floods, and many others. Furthermore, climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of these hazards, thereby significantly raising the probability of their interactions (UNDRR 2021). Hazards may interact in different and complex ways, occurring simultaneously, cascadingly, or cumulatively amplifying the overall impact. The severe, cascading, event that affected Blatten (Switzerland) in May 2025 clearly exemplifies how a single trigger can evolve into a complex disaster. Such phenomena highlight the need for integrated approaches to the study and management of multi-hazard scenarios, particularly in contexts where natural hazards are still predominantly analysed individually, leading to potential underestimation of overall risk.
To address this challenge, this study develops a structured framework of potential multi-hazard scenarios for Alpine regions, using the Valle d’Aosta region as a test area. This region represents an ideal, natural, laboratory due to the availability of extensive historical and monitoring datasets, its high susceptibility to geo-hydrological hazards, and the presence of active glacial and periglacial processes representative of broader Alpine conditions. The framework systematically investigates scenarios across three main domains: (1) the glacial and periglacial environment, (2) slope instabilities, including the role of forests, and (3) valley-bottom settings where processes converge. By identifying and characterising these scenarios, the research aims to establish a systematic approach for locating critical zones prone to multi-hazard events. The findings are intended to enhance risk assessment, inform strategic planning, and improve preparedness for the evolving multi-hazards of the Alps under climate change.
References
UNDRR (2021) Stories from the frontline: Japanese staff of the UN reflect on the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake | UNDRR. https://www.undrr.org/news/stories-frontline-japanese-staff-un-reflect-2011-great-east-japan-earthquake. Accessed 11 Sept 2025
ID: 3.197
Wildfire vulnerability of buildings in Austrian mountain regions: a transferable multi-purpose assessment tool
Sven Fuchs Echtler, Pia; Müller, Mortimer; Vacik, Harald; Papathoma-Köhle, Maria
Abstract/Description
Wildfires are an increasingly relevant hazard in Austrian mountain regions, particularly within the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), where settlements, tourism infrastructure, commercial activities, and forested landscapes intersect. While climate change influences fire regimes, rising wildfire risk in alpine areas is also strongly shaped by evolving exposure patterns and differentiated vulnerability of buildings and economic assets. Expanding tourism facilities, dispersed residential development, and infrastructure growth in hazard-prone terrain significantly alter local risk configurations.
This contribution presents a comprehensive and transferable assessment tool for analysing wildfire vulnerability across diverse building types in the Austrian mountain context. Moving beyond conventional building classifications, the tool integrates:
Structural characteristics (e.g., construction materials, roofs, façade elements, openings),
Functional dimensions (e.g., production processes, storage of combustible materials, visitor density, critical services), and
Importantly, the approach differentiates between crown fires, surface fires, and spotting processes, allowing a more process-oriented understanding of fire-structure interactions in alpine terrain. By linking hazard characteristics with building-specific vulnerability factors, the tool provides an empirically grounded framework that supports spatial comparison and hotspot identification at local and municipal scales.
We demonstrate how land-use development, tourism expansion, and socio-economic change in mountain municipalities modify risk patterns independently of, and in interaction with, changing climatic conditions. Beyond methodological development, the project translates scientific assessment into practice through a handbook designed for municipalities and local stakeholders. The guidance supports indicator selection, data collection, interpretation, and integration into spatial planning, risk management, and prevention strategies. By strengthening the empirical basis of vulnerability assessment and improving documentation of exposure patterns, the approach contributes to more robust risk modelling and forward-looking wildfire management in mountain regions.
ID: 3.194
A new field index for structural sediment connectivity validation in alpine catchments: development and comparison with the Index of Connectivity (IC)
Felix Wörner Schmutz, Daria; MSK, Ishmam; Keiler, Margreth
Abstract/Description
Alpine catchments are characterized by steep topography and high relief energy, favouring active sediment transfer and natural hazards such as debris flows. Sediment connectivity theories provide a promising framework for understanding geomorphological processes and dynamics, making structural sediment connectivity a key indicator for sediment flux patterns at the catchment scale. DEM‑based indices such as the Index of Connectivity (IC) are widely used to map sediment pathways, but their empirical validation against field‑based connectivity assessments remains has hardly been investigated to date, which represents a relevant research gap within sediment connectivity theories.
In this study, a new field index for structural sediment connectivity is developed to provide a rapid, simple, robust and reproducible method for mapping sediment connectivity patterns in alpine environments. The index is designed for application along transects within alpine catchments and captures key topographic and sedimentary features that control sediment transfer over steep slopes and channels. It is implemented in two alpine catchments in Tyrol, both characterized by similar land use and surface cover and documented to have experienced debris flows in recent years, providing a suitable setting to test the method under comparable morphological conditions.
The field index is compared with the IC calculated from a 2018 high‑resolution DEM using the SedInConnect Tool, with the aim of assessing whether the field‑based method can serve as a potential “ground truth” for remotely derived connectivity patterns. Results indicate broadly consistent spatial patterns in steep terrain, whereas the field index highlights local sediment traps and depositional features that are not always reflected in the IC. Overall, it confirmed the patterns identified by the IC, which represents a decisive step in the validation of such indices.
The study demonstrates that the proposed field index offers a practical, standardized and reproducible approach for assessing structural sediment connectivity at the catchment scale in alpine catchments. It provides a methodological basis for further validation and refinement of remote‑sensing‑based connectivity indicators and contributes to improving the empirical foundation of sediment connectivity and hazard assessments in mountain regions.
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