Regional Mountain Conference

Natural hazards rarely occur independently. They are highly likely to interact with each other across space and time. This dynamic is particularly pronounced in mountain regions. High-mountain environments are characterised by high gravitational potential energy, the presence of glaciers, dense hydrological networks, and varied weather patterns. This setting is prone to a wide range of natural hazards, including landslides, floods, avalanches, forest fires, glacial lake outburst floods, and many others. Furthermore, climate change is  increasing the frequency and intensity of these hazards, thereby significantly raising the probability of their interactions (UNDRR 2021). Hazards may interact in different and complex ways, occurring simultaneously, cascadingly, or cumulatively amplifying the overall impact. The severe, cascading, event that affected Blatten (Switzerland) in May 2025 clearly exemplifies how a single trigger can evolve into a complex disaster. Such phenomena highlight the need for integrated approaches to the study and management of multi-hazard scenarios, particularly in contexts where natural hazards are still predominantly analysed individually, leading to potential underestimation of overall risk.

To address this challenge, this study develops a structured framework of potential multi-hazard scenarios for Alpine regions, using the Valle d’Aosta region as a test area. This region represents an ideal, natural, laboratory due to the availability of extensive historical and monitoring datasets, its high susceptibility to geo-hydrological hazards, and the presence of active glacial and periglacial processes representative of broader Alpine conditions. The framework systematically investigates scenarios across three main domains: (1) the glacial and periglacial environment, (2) slope instabilities, including the role of forests, and (3) valley-bottom settings where processes converge. By identifying and characterising these scenarios, the research aims to establish a systematic approach for locating critical zones prone to multi-hazard events. The findings are intended to enhance risk assessment, inform strategic planning, and improve preparedness for the evolving multi-hazards of the Alps under climate change.

References

UNDRR (2021) Stories from the frontline: Japanese staff of the UN reflect on the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake | UNDRR. https://www.undrr.org/news/stories-frontline-japanese-staff-un-reflect-2011-great-east-japan-earthquake. Accessed 11 Sept 2025